A Statistical Analysis on the Likelihood of Independent Occurrences of Serious Residential Fires


At the request of Federal Prosecutor Mike MacDonald, the author was asked to investigate the likelihood of a series of fires that were reported by a landlord in West Michigan. In this presentation the author will discuss how data from the National Fire Protection Agency and the American Housing Survey (conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau) can be used to obtain estimates for the number of residential fires, the number of housing units in the US, and the proportion of fires that are “serious.” More specifically, the talk will present how a model can be developed that quantifies the probability of the random occurrence of “X” number of serious fires in properties owned by the same individual over a “Y” month time period.

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