Event Title

Construction of an Ebola Disease Simulation Model Based on Call Data Records and Disease Aspects at Individual and Population Levels

Location

Hager-Lubbers Exhibition Hall

Start Date

30-4-2015 3:30 PM

Description

PURPOSE: While working within a multidisciplinary team toward the construction of an Ebola disease simulation model, literary research was conducted on biological aspects of Ebola at the individual and population level. We hypothesized that the incorporation of these biological aspects, as well as human mobility data gleaned from anonymized mobile phone call data records (CDRs), would produce simulation results that mimic real-world epidemiological aspects of the spreading of Ebola within a population. PROCEDURES: The various biological aspects of Ebola disease investigated included individual characteristics, such as viral load trajectory, as well as population characteristics, such as R0 values to determine the rate of secondary infections stemming from a single infected individual. Population modeling and human mobility characteristics were produced via CDRs, which capture the time and location of an individual upon sending/receiving a call or text message. In order to analyze the simulation results, the number of infected individuals and the number of deaths produced by our simulation was compared to simulation results of an existing Center for Disease Control (CDC) Ebola simulation as well as real-world data of the ongoing Ebola outbreak from the CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO). OUTCOME: The simulation resulting of this investigation produced results within an acceptable range of the CDC Ebola simulation model and data from the ongoing outbreak. IMPACT: In conclusion, the investigation of mobility and social mixing patterns within the context of biological aspects of Ebola disease was essential to the creation of the simulation model.

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Apr 30th, 3:30 PM

Construction of an Ebola Disease Simulation Model Based on Call Data Records and Disease Aspects at Individual and Population Levels

Hager-Lubbers Exhibition Hall

PURPOSE: While working within a multidisciplinary team toward the construction of an Ebola disease simulation model, literary research was conducted on biological aspects of Ebola at the individual and population level. We hypothesized that the incorporation of these biological aspects, as well as human mobility data gleaned from anonymized mobile phone call data records (CDRs), would produce simulation results that mimic real-world epidemiological aspects of the spreading of Ebola within a population. PROCEDURES: The various biological aspects of Ebola disease investigated included individual characteristics, such as viral load trajectory, as well as population characteristics, such as R0 values to determine the rate of secondary infections stemming from a single infected individual. Population modeling and human mobility characteristics were produced via CDRs, which capture the time and location of an individual upon sending/receiving a call or text message. In order to analyze the simulation results, the number of infected individuals and the number of deaths produced by our simulation was compared to simulation results of an existing Center for Disease Control (CDC) Ebola simulation as well as real-world data of the ongoing Ebola outbreak from the CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO). OUTCOME: The simulation resulting of this investigation produced results within an acceptable range of the CDC Ebola simulation model and data from the ongoing outbreak. IMPACT: In conclusion, the investigation of mobility and social mixing patterns within the context of biological aspects of Ebola disease was essential to the creation of the simulation model.