Purpose - This research article analyzes terrorism and its impacts on tourism in Jammu and Kashmir. This article aims to know what terrorism is and how it impacts the tourism sector in the three geographical regions of erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated into two union territories by the Indian government after the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution.
Methodology - Secondary data sources have been used, collected from Director Tourism Kashmir, Director Tourism Jammu, Jammu, and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Societies, and Home Ministry of India. In this research paper, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) of time series analysis has been used to examine the impact of terrorist activities and human killings on tourist arrivals. The explanatory variables used in this time series analysis consist of human fatalities in Jammu and Kashmir and terrorist attacks from 1990- 2019. Co-integration has been done under the Johansen test, and the VECM has been applied accordingly.
Findings – All the three variables were to be found integrated of order one 1(1). The results of the VECM model indicate that the error correction term is negative and significant. It implies a unidirectional long-run causality running from human killings and terrorist incidents to total tourist arrivals. Hence, the outcome indicates that there is a strong long-run relationship among the variables under Study. The VECM model also confirmed that human killings negatively influenced tourist arrivals. There was also a negative relationship between total tourist arrivals and terrorist activities, but it is statistically insignificant. It also confirms that there is a long-run association between total tourist arrivals (LTTA), total human killings (LTHK), and total terrorist incidents (LTTI). It was also confirmed that there is a short-run relation between total human killings (LTHK) and total tourist arrivals (LTTA) and no short-run relation between total human killings (LTTI) and total tourist arrivals (LTTA).
The practical implications- This Study enables the policymakers to obtain the necessary information to implement more adequate policies to safeguard this substantially emerging industry.
Originality – Literature has been reviewed, and it was found most of the studies have focused on terrorism and its impacts on tourism. Very few have focused on what terrorism is and how it looks like in Jammu and Kashmir, and how it impacts the tourism sector here. Less number of studies have focused on terrorism and tourism, particularly at national and state levels, and least among them have focused on its regional effects. Most of these studies have used regression analysis for their studies. In this paper, efforts have been made to do descriptive and graphical analysis, and finally, the VECM model was applied.
Research limitations – The Study has various limitations, most of which twig from the lack of data from one source. I have to collect it from multiple organizations. There was no such data available that shows the killings of tourists or Yatries (pilgrim tourists) during the mentioned period.
Key Words -Tourism, Terrorism, Tourism in Jammu and Kashmir, VECM Model
Paper type – Research Paper
Tourism, Terrorism, Tourism in Jammu and Kashmir, VECM Model
KUMAR, ALTAF AHMD
"Tourism and Terrorism- A Study of Jammu and Kashmir,"
Journal of Tourism Insights:
1, Article 3.
Available at: https://doi.org/10.9707/2328-0824.1174
Available at: https://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/jti/vol11/iss1/3