Predicting Long-Term Tundra Plant Community Change in Response to Warming

Presentation Type

Oral and/or Visual Presentation

Presenter Major(s)

Biology

Mentor Information

Robert Hollister, hollistr@gvsu.edu

Department

Biology

Location

Kirkhof Center 2270

Start Date

13-4-2011 12:00 PM

End Date

13-4-2011 12:30 PM

Keywords

Environment, Life Science

Abstract

Arctic plants are adapted to low temperatures and turn temperature increases can cause dramatic changes in these plant communities. It has been shown that short-term warming experiments cause increased growth however as warming continues this growth may not be sustainable thus long-term community change may be difficult to predict. This study monitored four tundra sites in Alaska that has been done since the 1990s. In particular, we looked at how the plant communities changed over 11-13 years of warming. Communities were sampled after 1-2 (initial) and 4-6 years of warming (secondary) and changes were used to predict what the plant community assemblages looked like after tertiary warming. Initial warming responses were poor predictors of tertiary warming responses however, secondary warming responses were accurate predictors. Therefore, when using observed community change to predict future community change, it is important to partition out initial and secondary warming response.

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Apr 13th, 12:00 PM Apr 13th, 12:30 PM

Predicting Long-Term Tundra Plant Community Change in Response to Warming

Kirkhof Center 2270

Arctic plants are adapted to low temperatures and turn temperature increases can cause dramatic changes in these plant communities. It has been shown that short-term warming experiments cause increased growth however as warming continues this growth may not be sustainable thus long-term community change may be difficult to predict. This study monitored four tundra sites in Alaska that has been done since the 1990s. In particular, we looked at how the plant communities changed over 11-13 years of warming. Communities were sampled after 1-2 (initial) and 4-6 years of warming (secondary) and changes were used to predict what the plant community assemblages looked like after tertiary warming. Initial warming responses were poor predictors of tertiary warming responses however, secondary warming responses were accurate predictors. Therefore, when using observed community change to predict future community change, it is important to partition out initial and secondary warming response.